Everyone Says China Is Winning the Tech War — But Is It Really?

 If you follow today’s headlines, it can feel like China has already won the global technology race.A widely cited 2025 report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) claims that China leads the United States in research output across 66 of 74 critical technologie.

But here’s the real question:Does leading in research papers and patents automatically mean winning the tech war? The answer is more complicated than the headlines suggest. To understand what’s actually happening, we need to step outside research labs and look at factories, supply chains, software ecosystems, and real-world deployment.

China’s push into real-world AI and robotics.image-chinadaily

The AI Battle: Innovation vs Execution

Kai-Fu Lee, the renowned AI expert and author of AI Superpowers, makes a crucial distinction:

The U.S. dominates in foundational innovation, while China excels at large-scale implementation.

America’s strength is obvious. Breakthrough foundation models like OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini reflect deep advantages in research culture, talent concentration, and compute access.

China, meanwhile, is still catching up in frontier AI models. Companies like Baidu (Ernie Bot) and ByteDance are improving rapidly, but export controls and limited access to advanced chips remain real constraints.

Where China truly stands out is industrial AI. Firms like Huawei and Tencent are embedding AI into manufacturing, logistics, smart cities, and surveillance at a scale that Silicon Valley rarely attempts. China may not lead the AI “brain race,” but it is winning the race to deploy AI everywhere.

 Semiconductors: The Silicon Wall China Still Can’t Break

If technology were a body, semiconductors would be its heart. And this is where China faces its toughest challenge.

As Chris Miller explains in Chip War, China remains heavily dependent on foreign technology for advanced chips. Despite progress by SMIC and claims of 7nm production, China still lacks consistent access to cutting-edge manufacturing tools—especially extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines controlled by ASML.

U.S.-led export restrictions have slowed China’s progress, not stopped it—but the gap remains significant. Nvidia’s advanced AI chips, essential for training large models, are still far beyond China’s domestic capabilities.

In short, China has engineers, capital, and ambition—but the silicon bottleneck is real.

How China’s tech giants expanded through major acquisitions.image-cbinsights

 Clean Tech and EVs: Where China Has Already Won

In electric vehicles and clean energy, the debate is largely over.

China dominates global EV manufacturing, battery production, and solar supply chains. BYD now rivals Tesla in global EV sales, while CATL has become the world’s most influential battery supplier.

Roughly 80% of the global solar supply chain runs through China. This isn’t just about technology—it’s about scale, cost control, and industrial coordination. In clean tech, China didn’t just innovate; it industrialized faster than anyone else.

Here, the U.S. isn’t losing on technology—it’s losing on manufacturing depth and supply-chain control.

 What Global Experts Are Really Saying

According to Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group, the world is heading toward a “Great Split”:

two technology ecosystems, two internets, and two sets of standards—one led by the U.S., the other by China.

Futurist Amy Webb adds another layer. She argues that China’s obsession with infrastructure—5G networks, data centers, smart grids—could provide a long-term advantage. Technology doesn’t run on ideas alone; it runs on digital highways. And China is building those highways at scale.

Conclusion: Is There a Winner Yet?

So, is China winning the global tech race?

Not yet. But it isn’t losing either.

China dominates hardware, manufacturing, and supply chains.

The U.S. still holds powerful advantages in software, talent, capital markets, and global trust.

This isn’t a 100-meter sprint. It’s a marathon.

In the end, victory won’t belong to the country with the most patents or research papers. It will belong to the one that learns how to turn technology into economic power, geopolitical influence, and public trust.

And that race is still wide open.

Why Semiconductors Now Matter More Than Oil for Global Power

China’s Tech Push in 2026: Is Beijing Gaining Ground Against the West?