The question of where global power will be centered over the next decade is no longer academic. It is actively shaping decisions in foreign ministries, financial institutions, and boardrooms worldwide.
Since the end of World War II, the global order has largely been unipolar, dominated by Western powers—particularly the United States. That era is now fading. Between 2025 and 2035, the world is expected to undergo what many analysts describe as a “Great Shift” toward a multipolar system, where power is distributed across multiple regions rather than concentrated in one.
Below is a detailed analysis of the regions poised to define the next phase of global politics and economics.
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| BRICS economies overtaking the G7 in global GDP share |
1. South Asia: The New Center of Gravity
South Asia—led decisively by India—is emerging as one of the most consequential power centers of the 21st century.
According to projections by major global institutions such as Goldman Sachs and the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2035.
Key Drivers:
Demographic Advantage: While populations in China, Japan, and much of Europe are aging, India and its neighbors possess the world’s largest young workforce.
Energy and Industrial Growth: IEA forecasts show India accounting for the largest increase in global energy demand by 2035—an indicator of rapid industrial expansion.
Strategic Geography: Positioned at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, India increasingly functions as a balancing power between the United States and China.
2. Southeast Asia (ASEAN): The Manufacturing Alternative
Countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are rapidly transforming into global manufacturing hubs.
Under the widely adopted “China Plus One” strategy, multinational corporations are shifting production to Southeast Asia to reduce over-reliance on China.
Why ASEAN Matters:
Indonesia’s Rise: With vast reserves of nickel, Indonesia is becoming a cornerstone of the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain.
Trade Integration: Agreements like RCEP have turned ASEAN into one of the world’s largest integrated markets.
Economic Scale: By 2035, ASEAN’s combined economic output could rival or exceed that of several European economies.
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| India and China driving global economic growth by 2030.image-US department of agriculture |
3. The Middle East: From Oil Power to Tech Power
The Gulf region is undergoing one of the most dramatic transformations in modern history.
Initiatives such as Saudi Vision 2030 highlight a strategic pivot away from oil dependence toward technology, renewable energy, AI, and tourism.
Strategic Shifts:
Economic Diversification: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing hundreds of billions into future-facing sectors.
Diplomatic Influence: Countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia are positioning themselves as mediators in regional conflicts, significantly boosting their soft power.
Capital Magnet: The Middle East is increasingly becoming a global hub for capital, infrastructure, and innovation.
4. East Africa: The Quiet Contender
Africa is often called “the continent of the future,” but East Africa is where that future may arrive first.
Countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania are emerging as critical nodes in global supply chains.
Why East Africa Is Rising:
Rapid Urbanization: Africa is urbanizing faster than any other region.
Digital Leapfrogging: Kenya’s success in mobile banking and fintech has already set global benchmarks.
Supply Chain Potential: By 2035, East Africa is expected to play a meaningful role in global manufacturing and logistics.
China: The Constant Factor
While power is becoming more distributed, it is important to note that China is not declining—it is adapting.
China remains the world’s largest manufacturing base and a dominant trade partner across Africa, ASEAN, and the Middle East. The emerging multipolar world does not replace China; it forces Beijing to share influence rather than monopolize it.
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| BRICS economies overtaking the G7 in global GDP share.image-statista |
What Will Define Power in the Next Decade?
Global influence will no longer be determined by GDP or military strength alone. Three critical drivers will dominate:
1. Technological Sovereignty
Nations leading in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing will set global rules. Alongside the US and China, Japan and South Korea are becoming decisive “middle powers.”
2. Critical Minerals Diplomacy
Lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements are the new oil. Regions controlling these resources—particularly Africa and Latin America—will gain significant bargaining power.
3. Multi-Alignment Strategy
Countries are no longer choosing sides. Instead, they are pursuing multi-alignment—maintaining security ties with the West while deepening trade with China. India, Brazil, and Turkey are leading this approach.
Risks That Could Disrupt the Shift
Climate Change: South Asia and Africa are among the most climate-vulnerable regions.
Political Instability: Rapid economic change often triggers social unrest.
Debt Pressure: Heavy external debt—especially to China—could limit policy independence for several emerging nations.
Conclusion: The World of 2035
The next decade will mark the gradual decline of Western dominance and the definitive rise of the Global South.
Power will no longer be confined to Washington, Brussels, or London. Instead, it will be shared with New Delhi, Jakarta, Riyadh, and Nairobi.
For citizens, investors, and policymakers alike, understanding these emerging centers is no longer optional—it is essential. The world is changing, and this transformation is not only inevitable, but already underway.
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